A dramatic realignment in East African commerce is reshaping Uganda’s trade landscape after Tanzania overtook China as Uganda’s largest source of imports, signaling the growing influence of regional supply chains and the country’s booming gold trade.
New trade figures released by the Uganda Revenue Authority show imports from Tanzania surged to approximately Shs12.46 trillion over the past year, accounting for nearly 22 percent of Uganda’s total imports. The development pushed China — long Uganda’s dominant import partner — into second place, ahead of India, Kenya and the United Arab Emirates.
The shift marks one of the most significant changes in Uganda’s regional trade dynamics in over a decade and underscores the rising economic integration within the East African Community.
At the center of the surge is Uganda’s rapidly expanding gold refining and re-export industry.
Uganda is increasingly positioning itself as a regional precious metals hub, importing raw gold largely from Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo before refining and exporting it to global markets.
The trade boom has significantly boosted cross-border commerce through the Mutukula and Mirama Hills routes while increasing cargo traffic between Dar es Salaam Port and Kampala.
Economists say the development reflects a broader trend in which African economies are trading more with neighboring countries rather than relying solely on Asian supply chains.
“This is more than a trade statistic. It is evidence that regional value chains are beginning to deepen,” said a Kampala-based trade analyst familiar with East African market flows. “Uganda is leveraging geography, refining capacity and regional demand to strengthen its position in the gold business,” said Adam Mugume, the Executive Director for Research and Economic Analysis at the Bank of Uganda.
The trend also arrives at a time when governments across East Africa are pushing for stronger intra-African trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area framework.
For Uganda, the implications stretch beyond customs data.
Commercial banks, forex dealers and logistics companies are already experiencing increased transaction volumes linked to the gold trade. The sector has become one of Uganda’s largest foreign exchange earners, helping support export growth even as traditional sectors such as coffee and fish face fluctuating global prices.
Transport operators moving goods between Tanzania and Uganda are also expected to benefit from rising demand for fuel, warehousing and cargo handling services.
However, analysts warn that Uganda’s growing dependence on gold-related trade could expose the economy to commodity price volatility and heightened international scrutiny over mineral sourcing and compliance standards.
The changing trade rankings may also intensify competition among regional economies seeking to become industrial and logistics hubs in East Africa.
For years, China dominated Uganda’s import market through machinery, electronics, construction materials and manufactured goods. Tanzania’s rise signals how rapidly commodity-linked trade flows can alter regional economic influence.
The development comes as Uganda accelerates broader industrialization efforts tied to oil production, mineral processing and infrastructure expansion.