Nigeria has emerged as Africa’s fastest-rising upstream oil and gas investment destination after sweeping reforms under President Bola Tinubu helped the country capture 40% of the continent’s Final Investment Decision (FID) activity within just two years.
According to Nigeria’s Energy Sector Reforms 2023-2026: A Three-Year Review, published by the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Nigeria has moved from years of declining investor confidence to securing a massive $50 billion project pipeline extending beyond 2026.
The report, spearheaded by Special Adviser Olu Verheijen, highlights how executive reforms transformed the country’s upstream sector after nearly a decade on the margins of Africa’s energy investment landscape.
Between 2014 and 2023, Nigeria captured just 4% of Africa’s upstream FIDs despite holding 37.5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the continent’s second-largest reserves base. During that period, countries such as Algeria, Angola, Mozambique and Namibia outperformed Nigeria as investors pulled back amid regulatory uncertainty, pipeline vandalism, and falling production.
However, Tinubu’s administration introduced aggressive reforms targeting fiscal competitiveness, regulatory clarity, and contracting efficiency. Presidential directives clarified the responsibilities of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, while new tax incentives were rolled out to revive deepwater investments.
The government also reduced contracting timelines at NNPCL from 36 months to just six months, significantly improving investor confidence.
The reforms have already triggered major deals and investments. approved the $5 billion Bonga North deepwater project and committed another $2 billion to a gas development initiative, while TotalEnergies partnered with NNPCL on the $550 million Ubeta gas field project.
At the same time, four international oil companies transferred onshore assets worth about $4 billion to indigenous operators including Seplat Energy and Oando PLC ,helping boost Nigeria’s oil production to 1.6 million barrels per day — the country’s highest onshore output in two decades.
The government now targets production of 3 million barrels per day, positioning Nigeria for a major long-term resurgence in Africa’s energy sector.